Canberra, Australia/Odds

With the city at about 800 square kilometers, compared to our graticule which is around 10,000 square kilometers, we can expect to have the target land in the city 8% of the time, or around two and a half times per 31 day month. Given 52 Saturdays in a year, we can estimate that the target will land nearby on about four of them.

Historical searches support this estimate, with 11 instances of the target falling within Canberra between 2008-01-01 and 2008-05-26 (146 days) - 8%; and with two of those instances being Saturdays, extrapolating to 5 Saturdays in Canberra per year.

The hits were:

In a paddock/park a short distance south of Drake Brockman Drive, Higgins
On the shoulder of the northbound lane of the Tuggeranong Parkway, just north of the Cotter Road overpass, just south of where the Cotter Road slip-lane enters the Parkway
Across the road from 73 Warragamba Avenue, Duffey
On the land between the Monaro Highway and the Mugga lane tip – it’s in Canberra, but less accessible than some that are not
On the nature strip south of Antill St Hackett, near where it crosses Phillip Avenue. With adequate parking, even.
Median strip down the middle of Drakeford Drive near Bonython
Gunghalin Cemetary
Next to the pool in the back yard of 8 Wickham Crescent, Forrest
Just behind the airport, next to a farm house
In the front yard of a town house on Pennington Crescent, Calwell
On a logging trail in a pine forest near Sutton Road